Real Value Valuation for Property in the 21 Century? – A Comparison of Conventional and Real Value Models

Author/s: Rodney Jefferies

Date Published: 1/01/2010

Published in: Volume 16 - 2010 Issue 4 (pages 435 - 457)

Abstract

An old idea transforms into a simplified dynamic application for valuing investment property in the 21st Century. This paper presents a new all risks real yield (ARRY) valuation model for the 21st Century valuer’s use. It requires a paradigm shift in the minds of valuers from 20th Century thinking in nominal value terms to thinking in real value terms. This affects the methodology, valuation models and techniques required to value income producing property. It is compared to and distinguished from the conventional all risks yield (ARY) model used in the UK and previous real value valuation models developed in the UK and USA in the 1970-80’s. This ARRY model is an advance on generic real value valuation models of the 1990’s. A sales analysis and common valuation examples compare the ARRY model with conventional valuation methodology.

Download Full Article

Download the Full Article PDF

14445921.2010.11104313.pdf 14445921.2010.11104313.pdf (553kB)

Keywords

All Risks Real Yield - Conventional and Traditional Valuation Theory - Discounted Cash Flow - Dynamic Capitalisation - Income Valuation Models - Investment Real Estate - Real Value Valuation

References

  • Appraisal Institute. (2008). The Appraisal of Real Estate (13th ed.). Chicago, IL: Appraisal Institute.
  • Armatys, J., Askham, P., & Green, M. (2009). Principles of Valuation. London: Estates Gazette Books.
  • Baum, A., & Crosby, N. (1988). Property Investment Appraisal (1st ed.). London, UK: Routledge.
  • Baum, A., & Crosby, N. (1995). Property Investment Appraisal (2nd ed.). London, UK: Routledge.
  • Baum, A., & Crosby, N. (2008). Property Investment Appraisal (3rd ed.). Oxford: Blackwell Publishing.
  • Blackadar, C. G. (1984). Dynamic Capitalization: an income approach in real dollars at real interest. The Appraisal Journal, October 565-594.
  • Blackadar, C. G. (1986). Dynamic Capitalization: an income approach in real dollars at real interest, Part 2: Making it work for you. The Appraisal Journal, July 325-355.
  • Blackadar, C. G. (1989). Dynamic Capitalization: an income approach in real dollars at real interest, Part 3: The dynamics of expectations. The Appraisal Journal, July 338-371.
  • Blackledge, M. (2009). Introducing Property Valuation. London: Routledge.
  • Bullard, S. H., & Straka, T. J. (1998). Forestry valuation and investment analysis. Auburn, AL: Preceda.
  • Clark, R. E. (1978). Equated yield analysis. The Estatesman, April.
  • Crosby, N. (1985). The application of equated yield and real value approaches to the market valuation of commercial property. Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Land Management and Development, University of Reading, UK.
  • Crosby, N. (1986). The application of equated yield and real value approaches to market valuation: the logic of techniques and analysis of comparables. Journal of Valuation 4 (2 & 3), 158-169; 261-274.
  • Crosby, N., & Henneberry, J. (2010). Changing investment valuation practices in the UK. Paper presented at the 17th Annual Conference of the European Real Estate Society, 23-26 June, Milan, Italy. Retrieved from http://www.eres2010.org/contents/papers/eres2010 110 Crosby Changing Valuation P.pdf
  • Faustmann, M. (1849). Berechnung des Wertes welchen Waldboden, sowie noch nicht haubare Holzbestände für die Waldwirtschaft besitzen. Allgemeine Forst- und JagdZeitung 15, 441-455.
  • Fisher, C. E. (1995). Rates and ratios used in the income capitalization approach: an Appraisal. Chicago, Ill: Appraisal Institute.
  • IVSC. (2008). Guidance Note No. 9 - Discounted cash flow (DCF) Analysis for market valuations and investment analyses (Revised 2007). In International Valuation Standards. London: International Valuation Standards Council (IVSC).
  • IVSC. (2010). Proposed New International Valuation Standards Exposure Draft (June ed.). London: International Valuation Standards Council (IVSC).
  • Jefferies, R. L. (1997a). A generic ‘real value’ valuation model. Paper presented at the 2nd European Real Estate Society Conference, European Business School, Berlin, Germany, 25-27 June.
  • Jefferies, R. L. (1997b). A ‘real value’ lessor’s and lessee’s interest valuation model. Paper presented at the 2nd European Real Estate Society Conference, European Business School, Berlin, Germany, 25-27 June.
  • Jefferies, R. L. (2009a, 18-21 January ). A brief history and development of ‘real value ‘ valuation models - The last four decades. Paper presented at the Pacific Rim Real Estate Society Conference, Sydney, Australia. Retrieved from http://www.prres.net/papers/Jefferies_A_Brief_History_And_Development_Of.pdf
  • Jefferies, R. L. (2009b, January). A short history of income property valuation models - The 17th to 21st Century. Paper presented at the European Real Estate Society Conference, Stockholm, Sweden. Retrieved fromhttp://www.eres2009.com/papers/7H Jefferies.pdf
  • Jones, I. G. (1983). Equivalent yield analysis. Journal of Valuation 1, 246-252.
  • Marshall, P. J. L. (1976). Equated yield analysis A valuation method of the future. Estates Gazette, 239, 493-497.
  • NZIF. (1999). Forest valuation standards. Christchurch, New Zealand: New Zealand Institute of Forestry.
  • Reed, R. (Ed.). (2007). The valuation of real estate - the Australian edition of the Appraisal of Real Estate - 12th Edition. Canberra, ACT: Australian Property Institute.
  • Rich, J. (1999). How to calculate the true equivalent yield. Estates Gazette, 9949 (11 Dec), 84-85.
  • Rose, J. J. (1976). Rose’s Property Valuation Tables: constituting the 34th ed. of Inwood’s Tables of interest and mortality for the purchasing of estates and the valuation of property. Oxford: Freeland Press.
  • Rose, J. J. (1979). Inflation proof rents. Estates Gazette, 249, 531, 824-825.
  • Sayce, S., Smith, J., Cooper, R., & Venmore-Rowland, P. (2006). Real Estate Appraisal. From Value to Worth Oxford: Blackwell Publishing.
  • Scarrett, D. (2008). Property Valuation: The five methods (2nd ed.). London: Routledge.
  • Straka, T. J., & Bullard, S. H. (1996). Land expectation value calculation in timberland valuation. The Appraisal Journal, (July), 399-405.
  • Trott, A. J. (Ed.). (1980). RICS Research Project into Property Valuation Methods: Interim Report. London: Polytechnic of the South Bank.
  • Trott, A. J. (Ed.). (1986). Property Valuation Methods: Research Report London: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors & Polytechnic of the South Bank.
  • Viitala, E.-J. (2006). An early contribution of Martin Faustmann to natural resource economics. Journal of Forest Economics, 12 (2), 131-144.
  • Whipple, R. T. M. (1990). Valuations: A problem solving imperative, Part I. The N Z Valuer’s Journal, (June), 14-24.
  • Whipple, R. T. M. (1992). Valuations: A problem solving imperative, Part II. The N Z Valuer’s Journal, (February), 18-29.
  • Whipple, R. T. M. (1995). Property valuation and analysis. North Ryde, N.S.W.: Law Book Co.
  • Whipple, R. T. M. (2006). Property valuation and analysis (2nd ed.). Pyrmont, N.S.WLawbook.
  • Whipple, R. T. M., Kummerow, M., & Fraser, R. R. (1993). Issues in valuation reform. The Valuer and Land Economist, 32 (6, May), 455-463.
  • Wood, E. (1972). Property investment, a real value approach. Unpublished PhD, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
  • Wood, E. (1973). Positive valuations - A real value approach to property investments Estates Gazette, 226 (I, II, III), 923-925, 1115-1116, 1311-1313.
  • Wood, E. (1986). Positive valuation methods. Journal of Valuation, 4 (1, 4), 7-15; 170-184.
  • Worthington J. E. (1979). Dual Rate Theory — Annual Equivalent and Expected Yield Analysis. The Valuer, 25 (5), 374-373.
  • Worthington, J. E. (1990). Financial appraisal of properties and equities (1st ed.). Canberra, ACT: Australian Institute of Valuers and Land Administrators.
  • Wyatt, P. (2007). Property valuation in an economic context. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing.